You know, the obvious parallel to the situation with Russia and Ukraine is America and Cuba. Like, the latters were officially ~sovereign and independent~ of the neighboring major power, but come on. So when another major power tried to poach them under the guise of ~purely domestic~ “revolution”, naturally their suzerain raised an army (with reciprocal arms-length disclaimablity as “local forces”) to take it back.

Like, the parallel even extends as far as the nearby power not even bothering with the pretense of independence w/r/t the naval base from which they dominate the regional sea.