Many grains of salt on this one, since the methodology definitely biases towards the ‘online’ and dissident and there are limits to how you can adjust for that. It aligns with the qualitative evidence though, so I roughly believe it.
“Marrying your church into the state ruins the church” is one of those increasingly iron laws of modern politics - Francoist Spain had the same dynamic, rapidly accelerating the trendline of secularization. The logic makes sense - by becoming “the state” the church descends into the real & accountable; all of the mistakes of the Iranian government are errors of Islam itself, and the idea that your religious leaders are divinely inspired becomes laughable the eighth time they blunder on regulating the financial system. It is amusing though in that church-state marriage was far and away the method through which most major religions were spread to begin with; modernity flipped a switch and it went from huge asset to mortal liability.
Maybe not that much of a liability, everyone is secularizing after all; its just an impotent cure for that fundamental issue.
