So if this (unconfirmed!) report is true, then today is the end of Putin being considered a “strongman” leader. The only way that reputation could have survived was by killing or imprisoning Prigozhin. Instead, one of his underlings— literally his former chef!— stood against Putin’s desires and still got exactly what he wanted, without the Russian military ever laying a finger on him. Putin’s forces couldn’t stop the mutiny on their own, he had to address the nation on TV about the fact that the Russian government was being challenged from within, and even still that wasn’t enough to stop it.
The illusion of Putin’s invincibility and singular genius has been damaged in a way that will be tricky to spin for domestic Russian audiences. It’s now been brought out into the open that he operates the way most dictators do: sharing power amongst a coalition of allied stakeholders who possess the ability to alter the direction of Russian policy against Putin’s will.
The madman must have done it. He has no reason to retreat like this unless a deal’s been made, an outcome I’ve previously been assuming the Russian government would try to avoid at all costs because of how weak it makes them look. They would only agree to a deal if they couldn’t find a way to take Prigozhin out. The only questions now are 1) what the deal looks like and 2) if the Russian government still tries to kill Prigozhin anyway once his forces stand down.
It also sounds like a lot of Wagner fighters are unhappy with this outcome, and were hoping to take the fight all the way to Moscow. The most common emoji response to Prigozhin’s retreat announcement is 🤡
83,300 of your private mercenaries have reacted to your withdrawal from your coup attempt with a clown emoji
