{"version": "1.0", "type": "rich", "title": "Anyway for any other billionaires out there looking for high risk vacations costing hundreds of thousands of dollars, in change...", "author_name": "kontextmaschine", "author_url": "https://kontextmaschine.com", "provider_name": "kontextmaschine", "provider_url": "https://kontextmaschine.com", "url": "https://kontextmaschine.com/post/720779721899687936/", "html": "<p><a class=\"tumblr_blog\" href=\"https://galois-groupie.tumblr.com/post/720722312560869376/because-people-are-naturally-not-great-at\" target=\"_blank\">galois-groupie</a>:</p><blockquote><p><a class=\"tumblr_blog\" href=\"https://www.tumblr.com/blog/view/triviallytrue/720718835069632512\" target=\"_blank\">triviallytrue</a>:</p><blockquote><p><a class=\"tumblr_blog\" href=\"https://www.tumblr.com/blog/view/triviallytrue/720717654244179968\" target=\"_blank\">triviallytrue</a>:</p><blockquote><p>Anyway for any other billionaires out there looking for high risk vacations costing hundreds of thousands of dollars, in change for $10k I will take time off from my job and google publicly available info about the company to compile a dossier of how likely you are to bite it. I will even knock a couple thousand off the price tag if you pinkie promise not to drag your kids along</p></blockquote><p>For reference, US citizens drive an average of around 15k miles a year and the US has a death rate of around 1.5 fatalities per 100 million miles driven, so assuming you&rsquo;re statistically average your odds of dying in a car crash in one year are about 15,000 * 1.5 / 100,000,000, or close to 1 in 400.</p><p>Conversely, a little over 6000 people have climbed everest and over 300 people have died on it, so your risk there is more like 1 in 20.</p><p>With the power of easily googleable statistics and back-of-a-napkin math, you too could avoid dying in a really stupid, expensive way</p></blockquote><p>Because people are naturally not great at reasoning with probabilities, especially when it comes to matter of life and death, I propose the adoption of a new measurement, the U.S. passenger mile fatality expected value equivalent (USpmfEVe), which is much simpler and more intuitive. At 0.57 deaths per 100,000,000 passenger miles in the U.S., that puts a single sure death at approximately 1.75e8 USpmfEVe.</p><p>For example, skydiving is equivalent to 440 miles per jump and whitewater rafting is about 1200 miles per trip. Hopefully this has helped someone reason about risk.</p></blockquote>"}