I also live in Portland, and your pet theory about leftist street activism in 2020 leading to conservative backlash seems like a rather poor explanation for what's going on in the governor's race. Everyone's talking loudly about homelessness/public mental illness/street conditions, all of which are highly salient to anyone who spends time in the city and none of which have much to do with 2020 politics; the voters aren't clamoring to be rescued from antifa bandits or whatever.