Thoughts on Ukrainian advances:

• They’re impressive!
• Impressive though they are, the entire weight of Russia could still grind the entire weight of Ukraine down in time. This is in many ways the typical Russian way of war, the (unsuccessful) early shock was uncharacteristic and more typical of American doctrine.
• Russia might deploy less than its total weight; a full mobilization might have greater political or economic costs than its regime is willing to bear, the integration of its supply chains with Ukraine-friendly sources withdrawing support may limit its capabilities.
• India and China could conceivably offer themselves to Russia as replacements for Western market outlets, in China’s case this would be motivated by geopolitics and the appeal of forming the core of a non-American bloc to congeal around; in the case of India the appeal would be in using Russian technology and fertilizer (which is essentially natural gas value-added for export) to modernize its agricultural and other productive sectors
• Ukraine can supplement its weight with the support of friendly regimes in Western Europe and the US, providing materiel and advanced technical aid.
• Europe relies on Russian natural gas for much of its energy and a split with Russia will impose serious costs on European citizens and economies. Even if European political leadership classes are committed to Ukraine this will create severe tensions with their domestic bases; France is familiar with the dynamic of elite-approved programs being walked back in the face of popular resistance and has already had to abandon plans that raised energy costs for this reason, the German economy and political economy is substantially based on energy-intensive heavy industry exports.
• Russia in war has a habit of waiting for “General Winter” to do work for them and brother, winter is coming.