{"version": "1.0", "type": "rich", "title": "Uh so I never heard anything firsthand about Bayesianism I just heard how the collective guess of the number of jellybeans in...", "author_name": "kontextmaschine", "author_url": "https://kontextmaschine.com", "provider_name": "kontextmaschine", "provider_url": "https://kontextmaschine.com", "url": "https://kontextmaschine.com/post/653057100013043712/", "html": "<p>Uh so I never heard anything firsthand about Bayesianism I just heard how the collective guess of the number of jellybeans in the jar was likely better</p><p>But I always quantitized my instincts in terms of probabilities and how it is worked was I asked &ldquo;how likely is this to happen?&rdquo; and threw out a number and considered it and if it felt too high I tried\ufffc a lower one and vice versa</p>"}