In I think 2009, I said that this recession would end with borders and flags changing. I was, of course, right; I usually am about these things, it just took a while to drain down charismatic and financial reserves. When Greece collapses we should start getting to the meaty part, though.

As I see it, this’ll probably end with liquidation and reconsolidation, with mortality of at least 9 figures in excess of peacetime projections. The amusing thing is that both of the most obvious possibilities for how this’ll play out are comically retro.

I) Another World War, along classic lines, beginning in Europe with Germany as a pivot, with major cities leveled but NOT global thermonuclear annihilation. The major difference here being that America is no longer peripheral enough to sit out the opening and then waltz in as kingmaker. Interestingly, Russia might be, perhaps in alliance with India?

II) Another Crusade, with the EU papering over and externalizing its divisions (both intra- and inter-state) by banding together in an exterminationist campaign against Islam. Serving on the ideological side to establish a cohesive pan-European identity, and on the material side to plant extractive colonies in the economically vital Middle East.

I suppose there are other possibilities. Worldwide proletarian revolution’s probably got as good a shot as it’s ever had, though I wouldn’t bet on it. China’s a wild card, I see it probably distracted in a civil war that doesn’t spill far beyond its borders, though it could try to colonize Africa, in which case it might have to go through India. Brazil might take the opportunity to absorb some of its neighbors. And then we’ll see if the earth starts melting in a few decades.