So as the state- and parastate professional suburbanism of Greater D.C. swallows Northern Virginia, the state’s trended further blue; on the fundamentals the gubernatorial race was expected to be a clear victory for the Democrats (represented by moderate Lt. Governor Ralph Northam, who beat off a Bernie-flavored challenge in the primary) over the Republicans (establishment insider Ed Gillespie, who came shockingly close to losing the nomination to a Confederate-flavored challenger)

As it stands now the polling shows a neck-and-neck tie; the smart consensus is half the gap was cut when Gillespie managed to directly appeal to threatened white identity without alienating moderates and the other half when he was attacked for this by the left, alienating moderates