collapsedsquid:

afloweroutofstone:

The 2016 US presidential nominee Donald Trump has broken with the policies of previous Republican Party presidents on trade, immigration, and war, in favor of a more nationalist and populist platform. Using detailed Gallup survey data for a large number of American adults, I analyze the individual and geographic factors that predict a higher probability of viewing Trump favorably and contrast the results with those found for other candidates. The results show mixed evidence that economic distress has motivated Trump support. His supporters are less educated and more likely to work in blue collar occupations, but they earn relatively high household incomes, and living in areas more exposed to trade or immigration does not increase Trump support. On the other hand, living in zip-codes more reliant on social security income, or with high mortgage to income ratios, or less reliance on capital income, predicts Trump support. There is stronger evidence that racial isolation and less strictly economic measures of social status, namely health and intergenerational mobility, are robustly predictive of more favorable views toward Trump, and these factors predict support for him but not other Republican presidential candidates.

On the other hand, workers in blue collar occupations (defined as production, construction, installation, maintenance, and repair, or transportation) are far more likely to support Trump, as are those with less education. People with graduate degrees are particularly unlikely to view Trump favorably. Since blue collar and less educated workers have faced greater economic distress in recent years, this provides some evidence that economic hardship and lower-socio-economic status boost Trump’s popularity. Some caveats are needed even here, however. Relative to service workers (the lowest paying occupational category), business owners are more likely to support Trump, and managers are neither more nor less likely. Sales workers are more likely to support Trump, and clerical workers somewhat less likely. Manufacturing/production workers are most exposed to trade competition, and are more likely than service workers to favor Trump, but they are less likely to support Trump than other blue collar occupations where trade competition is largely irrelevant, because the services are provided on-site (eg transportation, electrician, and repair services).

So salespeople, who are paid on commission, small business owners, who have to worry about making payroll, and electrician/plumber types, who are often self-employed, all tend to support trump.

It also takes about how despite being richer, Trump supporters do tend to be economically anxious, and it makes sense.  These are the people who are more exposed to the market on a short-term basis and therefore run the risk of having trouble making their mortgage payments, but are too rich for welfare to be meaningful.  They can’t pick up and move, and job-switching is going to be tricky.

There was something I read from one of the guys who built out one of the Northern European right-populist parties - I forget if it was UKIP, BNP, PVV, or Dansk Folkeparti, he said in building membership they didn’t target ideological cadres - who were likely to come in with baggage and demands and desires on leadership slots and not that much pull tbh - but went through the yellow pages and sent out mailers to plumbers, contractors, the like. “White van man”.